By Nkanyiso Mchunu
Poultry and pork farmers are on panic mode after the announcement that the United States of America has already sent a shipment to South Africa as part of a sweetener deal to ease relations between the two countries. American president, Donald Trump, shared his dissatisfaction about South Africa even before he took office earlier this year and then later hit South Africa with the highest tariffs of all African countries.
Over the past decade, the relationship between South Africa and the United States has been anything but simple, marked by warm trade ties on one hand, and deepening political tensions on the other. While the Obama years saw a diplomatic high point rooted in shared democratic ideals and mutual respect, things took a turn during the Trump era, where controversial remarks about land reform and a general retreat from African affairs signalled a cooling of relations.
Under President Biden, efforts to restore goodwill were overshadowed by South Africa’s non-aligned stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and growing strategic ties with BRICS partners like China and Russia. The trust gap widened further after allegations emerged that South Africa may have quietly armed Russia, although no hard evidence was ever confirmed.
Still, beneath the political friction, trade and investment have largely endured, for now. South Africa remains one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with thriving exports in wine, citrus, and automobiles. American companies maintain a strong presence in the country, and South African firms continue to explore U.S. markets.
However, in a bold move that reasserted the country’s moral voice on the global stage, South Africa took Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in late 2023, accusing it of
committing genocide in Gaza. The case sparked fierce global reactions, deepening divides between the Global South and traditional Western powers.
Tensions reached a breaking point earlier this year when the U.S. suspended aid to South Africa, expelled its ambassador Ebrahim Rasool, and introduced “Mission South Africa”—granting expedited refugee status to white Afrikaners. These moves were rooted in Trump’s claims of a “white genocide” taking place in South Africa, a narrative that South African authorities and international observers have repeatedly rejected as false.
As false as these claims have been proven to be, they did not stop Trump’s steep tariffs towards South Africa, a moment and decision that member of parliament, leader and founder of Build One South Africa Dr Mmusi Maimane believes is a result of South Africa’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine war.
“I’d argue to say that was a culmination of perhaps maybe a decade of challenges between us and the United States. It culminates at a time where never and never before have we faced such profound geopolitical uncertainty, really presented before us by a conflict that took place in Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and certainly instability in multiple regions,” said Maimane at a webinar titled Scholars in Conversation, at DUT in Mansfield Hall, Ritson Campus.
Trumps claims of a “white genocide” and 30% import tariffs imposed on South Africa, consequently, were welcomed by outrage, some calling for Ramaphosa to cut all ties with America. While the masses were in accord over this dream power move, Maimane and trade numbers argue otherwise.
This is due to South Africa’s position as a trading partner to US. Relative to their own size of economy, South Africa is not in the top ten in terms of its own exports to the US. However, America represents the second highest trading partner for South Africa. This fact makes South Africa a net benefactor of the trading balance between itself and America and therefore cannot afford to leave the table, no matter what is being served.
“I would argue the fact that before you become so bold with that statement, be conscious about the extent of job losses that a US exit would mean for South Africa,” admitted Maimane, underscoring the importance of the SA-USA trade.
“These products are inherently needed for economy to be able to thrive. The number of jobs that we’d describe, the billions and billions of dollars that would be traded between the two mean that whether you and I accept it or not, our relations with the US happen to be crucial.”
Maimane’s sentiments are echoed by KwaZulu-Natala’s Finance MEC, Francios Rodgers who believes that business should take priority over personal standings.
“You might dislike Donald Trump; I don’t particularly like him. I don’t particularly like his political believes and that’s my view, but we still have to do business,” says Rodgers.
This business Maimane and Rodgers allude to is already happening and is the reason America is the second highest trading partner to South Africa. Rodgers puts these claims into perspective, drawing from Trading Economics’ statistics on SA-US trading.
“If we look at our exports, and according to the Trading Economics 2025, the total value of South Africa’s exports to the rest of the world were valued at $110 billion, that’s in 2024. Of this amount, approximately R8.2 billion came from goods destined for the US, which contributes about 7% of the total value of our exports. The key SA’s products which we export include mineral resources, agricultural projects, and manufacturing goods,” explains the KZN Finance MEC.
These figures highlight the significant role the United States plays not only as a key trading partner for South Africa, but also in the broader context of African exports.
“Also, according to trade economics, the total value of iron and steel exported to the US was around R506 million in 2024. Over the same period exports of vehicles to the US were around R1.4 billion and data from Trade Investment in KwaZulu Natal, show that SA exported precious metals, vehicles, aircrafts and vessels worth around R55 billion and R34.7 billion in 2024, which accounts for 35.1% and 22.1% of the total African exports,” he adds.
As a result of this trade reality, South Africa’s relationship with the United States increasingly resembles an abusive romance — one where economic gifts are offered with one hand, while the other delivers punishment. Though America feeds South Africa’s economy through trade and market access, it also slaps on tariffs, suspends aid, and weaponizes diplomacy when South Africa dares to chart an independent path.
While the metaphor seems exaggerated, recent discoveries by scholars would beg to not put the abusive claims beyond Trump.
Associate Professor and Acting Director at the International Centre of Nonviolence at DUT, Dorcas Oyebisi Ettang we need to Professor Dorcas Oyebisi Ettang believes there need to be an acknowledgement of the role of in international relations. She claims that emotions inform the language used, the behaviours expressed, and the policies developed.
Most importantly, she posits that when you have a powerful individual and mix that with negative emotion, it can be disruptive, Trump sticks out like a sore thumb as an example.
“These negative emotions, we have seen in the White House, from hate, anger, pride, resentment, and even disgust, are presented through various mediums, in person and even on social media,” says Ettang.
This emotional volatility is not just a personal trait but one that experts warn could shape international relations in deeply damaging ways.
When faced with negative comments, Trump tends to react immediately with anger without careful deliberation. Trump’s emotional reaction could cause serious damage to America’s relationship with his partners and friends,” explains Ettang.
Her claims are supported by Former White house Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci who argued that Trump is acting on whims. Whims are sudden desires or unusual changes of mind. This is supported by McCarthy Jones who posits that some of Trump’s policies are simply spiteful rather than strategic.
“Since his return to office, President Donald Trump’s emotions and actions have led to an increase in trade wars and a very tense global environment. Some have described him as emotional, atrocious, a bully, comical, unfretted in speech and action, and lacking all rationality,” says the DUT professor.
She adds further that an article in the British news Daily Guardian describes him as vengeful, reckless, and his actions are destructive, vindictive, illegal, irrational, and egotistical rampage,”
These scholarly findings, Trump’s lack of evidence for any of his claims, and his beef with seemingly every leader in the world suggests that the problem is not with the other country’s foreign policies, the common denominator is trump’s leadership.
But for South Africa, the problem is more than Trump’s leadership. The problem is association in the global stage and trade market. South Africa could not take a stance in the war between their BRICS partner Russia and Ukraine. South Africa showed their support to Palestine by taking Israel to the ICJ which did not bode well with USA. South Africa’s second highest trading partner is USA after China, another BRICS member.
At some point, South Africa will have to pick a side, it cannot continue to straddle both East and West without facing the political and economic consequences of its balancing act.
This sentiment is better represented by the Director of the centre for Africa-China Studies (CACSA) Prof David Monyae in his question, “Picture this, we all wake up and third World War has just begun, what would be our position?”
The uncertainty around this question is one the country’s biggest problems and the subsequent reason for its over-reliance on USA in the trade market, despite USA having a contrasting foreign policy to its own.
This over-reliance is a known problem and there is growing conversations around it with Monyae suggesting that it is South Africa that needs to doctor its views and lesson the reliance on USA.
“We need to be very clear on how we engage such a new administration that does not stand for what we stand for in the world. We cannot convince them to abandon their own view for us. What we can do is to craft ours and adjust it, to ensure that we lesson the dependence on them in so many key areas,” he says.
This suggestion is parroted by Rodgers who believes diversification to be a solution to South Africa’s problems.
“We need to look at the diversification of our export market. We can no longer do the same thing over and over and expect the different income. Expanding our trade relations with other countries and regions can reduce our reliance on the US market. Strengthening partnerships with emerging economies could help mitigate any potential market losses,” Rodgers suggests.
Until South Africa frees itself from the abusive grip of its trade partner USA, the unjustified ruthless backhand tariffs slap and abrupt kicks on the teeth in the form of aid suspensions will be a norm, according to Ettang, at least.
“One can argue that perhaps Donald Trump’s emotions of anger, his quick decision making, the lack of facts and evidence has defined and will continue to define its relationships with South Africa,” Ettang.
Ettang’s supposition threatens to be true for two reasons; south Africa needs the US more than the US needs South Africa, secondly, at its core, the U.S.–South Africa relationship is no longer defined by Cold War loyalties or post-apartheid gratitude, but by a new era of multipolar pragmatism, pragmatism that the US is not a fan of.
