By Amahle Radebe
In my opinion climate change is no longer a future problem, it is an ongoing issue in South Africa, and across the globe. When devastating floods wash away homes in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), when drought push Cape Town towards “Day Zero”, on numerous occasions we’ve warned that dams across the country have alarmingly low water supplies. When communities in the Eastern Cape are left counting the cost of heavy rains, we should stop asking whether climate change is affecting South Africa rather how much worse will these natural disasters become if we do not act?
I believe South Africa is already experiencing climate-induced extreme weather events. While floods, droughts and storms have always been part of our country’s climate, there is growing scientific evidence that global warming is making many of these events more frequent, more intense, and more destructive.
Climate change also referred to as climate crisis is often discussed as a problem for future generations, but evidence suggests its impacts are being felt today. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human activities have increased the frequency and intensity of many weather extremes, including heatwaves and heavy rains. Scientists have found that as the Earth’s atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, increasing the probability of intense rainfall and flooding.
South Africa has experienced extreme weather throughout its history which increases climate risk. Severe droughts were recorded in the nineteenth century, while major floods have repeatedly affected the country over many decades. However, recent events fit a worrying pattern. The 2015 to 2018 Cape Town drought threatened the city’s water supply and brought the country dangerously close to a groundbreaking urban water crisis. At the same time, climate projections show that much of South Africa is expected to experience warmer temperatures, more heatwaves, increased drought risk in some regions, and extreme rainfall in others.
Lesson and Risk from KZN and Eastern Cape Floods
The clearest example of this trend may be the April 2022 KwaZulu-Natal floods, listed among the worst weather disasters in South African history. More than 500 people lost their lives, thousands were displaced and critical infrastructure suffered major damage. Three years later, researchers from the University of the Witwatersrand formally linked the severity of the disaster to climate change. Their
study found that rainfall during the storm was between 40% and 107% heavier than it would have been in a cooler, pre-industrial climate.
Professor Francois Engelbrecht, Director of the Global Change Institute at Wits University, stated “Three years after President Cyril Ramaphosa said these floods were part of climate change, science can now confirm he was correct.”
That statement should serve as a wake-up call for South Africa. For years, climate change has been discussed in estimations and future scenarios but nowadays, scientists are increasingly able to connect specific weather disasters to global warming. The KwaZulu-Natal floods are no longer just a tragic event, but they are evidence of how climate change can amplify natural weather systems.
The Eastern Cape has also seen destructive flooding in recent years. Communities have experienced loss of life, damaged infrastructure, and disrupted sources of income after periods of intense rainfall. These floods remind us that climate impacts are not limited to one province. From Durban to Mthatha, and from Limpopo to the Western Cape, South Africans are facing climate-related risks in different forms.
El Niño, Drought, and Food Insecurity
In my opinion not every flood can be blamed entirely on climate change, but natural climate systems still play an important role. One of the most important of these is El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that affects weather patterns across the world. Which South Africa is about to experience according to South African Weather Service (Saws), in 2027. This weather phenomenon known as El Niño is the below average rainfall, and extremely hot temperatures that the country is said to experience, predicted to be one of the hottest summers ever recorded in history. El Niño often leads to hotter and drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought. Its opposite phase, La Niña, often brings wetter conditions and can contribute to flooding. El Niño itself is not caused by climate change but is caused by a naturally occurring climate cycle.
However, it would be a mistake to separate El Niño from the climate conversation completely. Climate change acts as a risk factor. When natural weather systems occur in a warmer world, their impacts can become more severe. A drought linked to El Niño may become worse because temperatures are higher. A storm may produce more rainfall because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. In this way, natural climate phenomena and global warming can work together to produce more damaging outcomes.
One of the most serious results of El Niño-driven droughts is food insecurity. Small-scale farmers are often the hardest hit because they depend heavily on seasonal rainfall for crops and livestock. When rainfall decreases and temperatures rise, harvests can fail, grazing land degrades and livestock may die. This reduces household income and threatens the food security of farming communities.
The effects are concerning as they do not stop on farms. When drought reduces agricultural production, the supply of food entering markets decreases. As a result, staple foods such as maize, vegetables and livestock products may become more expensive. Consumers then face higher food prices in supermarkets and local stores. Poor households are usually the most affected because they spend a larger proportion of their income on food. In this way, drought(s) caused by El Niño can have economic effects that reach every South African, whether they live in rural villages or major cities.
This reality extends beyond South Africa, the recent incident that occurred in Nepal, where the country experienced flooding for centuries due to rainy season systems and its mountainous geography. Flooding in Nepal is a natural phenomenon. Yet scientists warn that rising global temperatures can intensify rainfall events, increasing flood risks in vulnerable regions around the world. Natural weather systems are not disappearing; they are occurring within a climate that is becoming warmer and more unstable.
Extreme Weather Is Becoming the New Normal
What concerns me most is that extreme weather is becoming normal. Every year seems to bring another flood, another drought, another heatwave, or another costly disaster. South Africans cannot afford to treat these events as isolated incidents. The evidence increasingly suggests they are part of a broader pattern linked to a changing climate.
As citizens, we must support efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen adaptation measures. Better infrastructure, improved flood management, stronger early warning systems, and climate-resilient development are no longer optional, they are necessities. The experience of KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, and other vulnerable regions should remind us that climate change is not only an environmental issue. It is an economic issue, a social issue, and a human issue.
In conclusion, If the floods of Durban and the Eastern Cape have taught us anything, it is that climate change is not coming to South Africa. It has already arrived. From devastating floods to severe droughts, from food insecurity affecting small-scale farmers to higher prices on supermarket shelves, the impacts are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. While natural phenomena such as El Niño and seasonal storms have always existed, they are now unfolding in a warmer world. The result is a growing risk that extreme weather events will become more intense, more costly, and more dangerous for communities across South Africa. “The question is not whether climate change is real, but whether we are prepared for its impact.”
